Aegis Project Controls’ forward-looking approach to pre-construction risk analysis helps our clients make informed decisions based on the study of potential schedule and cost impacts. Working closely with the project team, Aegis will identify, assess and measure all job specific obstacles to timely project completion, which can include project specific factors, historic factors, key assumptions and trade productivity.
Project specific factors can include:
- The project scope
- Contract duration
- Expected site conditions
- Site logistics
- Project logistics
- Required phasing
- Area labor market
Historic factors may include:
- Area weather
- Local practices
- Contractor and trade subcontractor performance on comparable projects
Aegis’ risk professionals will typically perform a detailed review of the project schedule to ensure that it is a viable tool for planning, and meets both the specification requirements and good scheduling practices. Aegis and the project team will review the scheduled activities, durations and logic as well as the critical and near-critical paths to assess their reasonability and accuracy.
After the schedule review Aegis will apply the identified risks to the schedule. Different trades and work activities have varying degrees of susceptibility to and impact from the identified risk factors. Aegis works closely with the project team in making these assessments – we ensure that these decisions are founded on the facts.
With the activity risks evaluated and assigned, Aegis performs a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability of an impact. This simulation uses the risk factors that have been identified and the project schedule to determine, by running thousands of simulations, the likelihood of an impact from the identified issues. This simulation can provide the relative impact of each issue, the impact of all the identified issues, the likely completion date based on the issues identified and the cost implication of the identified issues.
The results of this prospective Risk Analysis will provide project leadership with critical information essential to making forward thinking decisions as to the sequence of the work, mitigation strategies and even contract buyouts.
During construction Aegis offers two main types of risk analysis services, the Monte Carlo simulation and the preparation and evaluation of “fragnets”.
If a pre-construction risk analysis was performed, Aegis suggests that the Monte Carlo simulation continue quarterly in order to identify the potential impacts of new risks. Just as scopes change and conditions vary, risks often evolve as the project develops and should be reevaluated. New risks can be introduced and the probable impacts of previously identified risks may need to be adjusted based on more current information. When the facts change, our strategies for timely and efficient completion should likewise change.
Fragnets, or fragmentary networks, are activities that are developed during the course of construction to represent changes to a construction project. The most powerful use of a fragnet is to determine the potential impact of an issue in order to determine the likelihood of an impact to the project. Aegis and the project team then use this information to provide notice of a possible impact, quantify the impact of an issue, identify the responsibility of that impact and determine possible strategies to mitigate that impact. Aegis’ primary focus is to identify issues before they become impacts and to work with the project team to prevent those impacts from causing delay or cost losses.
If required, Aegis Risk professionals have prepared Time Impact Analysis (“TIA’s”) and Requests for Equitable Adjustment (“REA”) in accordance to the guideline of virtually every state, Federal entity and professional organizations. Aegis’ risk professionals will work with your project team to resolve these issues during the construction period. Aegis Risk Analysis helps the builder chart the best course to successful project completion.
If circumstances did not allow the resolution of all the issues during the course of construction, Aegis offers full dispute resolution services. Aegis’ experts are nationally recognized in the fields of forensic CPM scheduling, cost analysis and loss of productivity. Aegis can provide analysis and advice to clients throughout the dispute resolution process.